A Novel Ensemble Machine Learning Approach for Bioarchaeological Sex Prediction

I present a novel machine learning approach to predict sex in the bioarchaeological record. Eighteen cranial interlandmark distances and five maxillary dental metric distances were recorded from n = 420 human skeletons from the necropolises at Alfedena (600–400 BCE) and Campovalano (750–200 BCE and 9–11th Centuries CE) in central Italy. A generalized low rank model (GLRM) was used to impute missing data and Area under the Curve—Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) with 20-fold stratified cross-validation was used to evaluate predictive performance of eight machine learning algorithms on different subsets of the data. Additional perspectives such as this one show strong potential for sex prediction in bioarchaeological and forensic anthropological contexts. Furthermore, GLRMs have the potential to handle missing data in ways previously unexplored in the discipline. Although results of this study look promising (highest AUC-ROC = 0.9722 for predicting binary male/female sex), the main limitation is that the sexes of the individuals included were not known but were estimated using standard macroscopic bioarchaeological methods. However, future research should apply this machine learning approach to known-sex reference samples in order to better understand its value, along with the more general contributions that machine learning can make to the reconstruction of past human lifeways.